Global Economic Update: Q1 2025

Since I launched Woodford Views in April, I've shared my thoughts on markets, the economy, and the broader trends shaping our world. With 2025 on the horizon, I wanted to share my views on what I think the key drivers of the global economy and financial markets will be in the first part of next year.

This is the first in what will be a regular series of publications. For Q1, I have explained the economic paths of the US, China, Europe, and the UK, considering what I think will matter most in the months ahead. There's plenty to unpack, from the resilience of the US economy, buoyed by tax cuts and falling inflation, to China's bold $700 billion stimulus programme, designed to reduce its dependence on exports. Europe, meanwhile, faces tougher prospects, grappling with overregulation and a struggling industrial base. And then there's the UK, which I believe will once again surprise on the upside, despite the political and fiscal challenges it continues to navigate.

I've also included my thoughts on financial markets, including why I think mid- and small-cap stocks in the US are far more attractive than the overstretched valuations of the so-called Magnificent 7, and why I'm starting to see genuine recovery potential in China's equity markets.

And of course, there are potential surprises–geopolitical shifts, energy price movements, or perhaps a sudden change in the inflation trajectory. The beauty of markets is that they rarely follow a script, and 2025 will no doubt throw up more than its fair share of the unexpected.